RAILA has a slight lead on RUTO for now but these 11 Counties will determine Kenya’s next President

 


Thursday, June 9, 2022 – On Wednesday, two opinion polls were released showing the 2022 presidential frontrunner, Raila Odinga, ahead of his main rival, William Ruto, in the presidential race.

According to a survey by Infotrak, the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition party presidential flag bearer has 42 % support compared to 38 % for Ruto who is also Kenya’s Deputy President.

The poll conducted between 23rd and 27th May indicated that 20 % of Kenyans remain undecided about their preferred presidential candidate making the August 9 polls hard to call.An analysis of the findings by the Infotrak polls shows that 11 Counties will be key in determining whoever succeeds President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The 11 counties spread across the country have a combined voting bloc of 4,021,769 registered voters.

In Western Kenya, Bungoma County and Trans Nzoia County which have 664,233 and 395, 741 registered voters respectively have turned out to be the battleground between the ODM leader and the former Eldoret North MP.

According to Infotrak, DP Ruto is more popular with 43 % of the Bungoma residents supporting his presidential bid while Raila is only supported by 36.

In Trans Nzoia County, Ruto has 41 % support while Raila has a 34 % popularity rate.

In Rift Valley, the counties of Narok, Kajiado, Turkana, Samburu, Nakuru, and West Pokot will be key in determining Kenya’s next President.

In Nakuru County, with 1,055,367 registered voters, the Kenya Kwanza alliance leader enjoys 46 % support followed by Raila with 24 %.30% of Nakuru residents remain undecided on who between Raila and Ruto should be elected the next President.

Both in Narok, Kajiado, and West Pokot, DP Ruto is the most popular candidate at 43%, 45, and 48 % respectively but still the number of undecided voters remains high.

On the hand, the ODM leader is leading in Turkana and Samburu at 42% and 43 % respectively with 15% of the residents yet to make up their mind about their preferred candidate.

In the Coastal region which traditionally has sided with the ODM leader, Kwale, Tana River and Lamu have turned into battlegrounds.

Currently, Ruto is leading in all the three counties, Kwale (42%), Tana River (43%), and Lamu (43%) while Raila has 35%, 41%, and 34% in the three Counties respectively.

In the 11 counties, an average of 20 % of the residents remain undecided about who they will vote for in the August presidential election.

Out of the 4,011, 769 registered voters in the swing counties, 802,353 are up for grabs for the leading presidential frontrunners.

Even though recent opinion polls show Raila leading, the Kenya Kwanza alliance supremo, William Ruto has the advantage because he is leading in 9 out of the 11 battleground counties.

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