Why RAILA ODINGA is likely lose the AUC bid to Djibouti’s MAHAMOUD YOUSSOUF despite RUTO'S backing.

Friday, August 30, 2024 - A Kenyan-based diplomat analyst has downplayed former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's chances of succeeding Moussa Faki Mahamat as African Union Chairperson.

Moussa Faki Mahamat is set to step down in February 2025, and with the backing of President William Ruto and state machinery, Raila Odinga has launched a multifaceted campaign for the top continental job.

However, according to Diplomatic Affairs Analyst Ahmed Hashi, Raila will lose the race to Djibouti’s candidate, Mahamoud Youssouf.

The analyst, who previously worked as a spokesperson in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speculated that the French government would interfere in the elections and influence the Francophone countries to unite and edge out Kenya's candidate. 

He touted Djibouti's candidate as the favourite to win the seat by a landslide during the elections to be held in Addis Ababa in February 2025. 

"What is important is to look at the context of the African continent and the states and how we expect they're going to behave towards Kenya's candidate, Mr Odinga. 

"I think Raila Odinga will lose the AUC chair election in Addis Ababa. I'm the only one who thinks that.  

"I will be shocked if he even gets a slim majority. The candidate from Djibouti is going to win a landslide," he said. 

He referenced the 2017 AUC elections when then Kenya's candidate, former Foreign Affairs CS Amina Mohamed lost to Chad's Moussa Faki after seven rounds of voting.

During the elections, reports indicated that a last-minute change by Uganda, Djibouti, and Burundi led to Kenya losing the seat. 

"The people in charge in these nations have fundamental influence from the Metropol. 

"The AU is divided based on these fundamental tectonic plates and one of the biggest influences of the AU is the French," Hashi noted. 

The Kenyan DAILY POST