How GACHAGUA and KALONZO can form an unstoppable alliance that could cripple RUTO's 2027 re-election – The numbers don't lie!

Monday, September 23, 2024- Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has constantly reminded Mt Kenya leaders who are opposing him that they have until December this year to declare their stand or prepare to go home in 2027.

Also, in what appears to be a threat to his boss, President William Ruto, Gachagua on Sunday urged the head of state to tame his attack dogs who are planning to impeach him.

The second in command, who seems to have a huge support base in the Mt Kenya region, urged the President that members of the Kikuyu community hate the politics of betrayal and warned him of consequences should he support his impeachment.

Gachagua’s impeachment will clearly rattle Mt Kenya region which supported Ruto’s presidency in 2022.

In fact, 47 percent of the votes that propelled Ruto to the House on the Hill, came from the mountain.

Ruto is already wooing Luo and Luhya tribes since his fallout with Gachagua is imminent and has reached a point of return.

Gachagua on the other side is wooing the Ukambani region and he seems to enjoy the camaraderie of former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who is the undisputed Kingpin.

With all these politicians eyeing the 2027 presidential election, let’s look at the numbers of each camp and why Kalonzo Musyoka will be a man to watch during the 2027 election.

The five counties in Central Kenya account for 3.1 million votes of the 22.1 million registered voters countrywide.

When you include Upper Eastern Kenya (Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi), Rift Valley (Nakuru), and Laikipia - whose voting pattern mirrors those in Central Kenya, the number of voters jumps to 5.8 million accounting for 26.1 per cent of the registered voters.

Kalonzo’s Ukambani total registered voters as of 2022 are 2.3 million and 600,000 of the numbers are from Kambas in diaspora ie Nairobi and Mombasa counties.

In Rift Valley, Ruto controls the Kalenjin vote which according to IEBC data in 2022 has 1.7 million voters including 200,000 in the diaspora.

Raila Odinga on his side controls 2.5 million registered voters in Nyanza and this includes Nyamira and Kisii counties

Prime Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi is not in firm control of Western Kenya but in the last election, Ruto polled 630,282 votes in Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, and Trans Nzoia with 1.2 million voting for Raila Odinga

In Maasai land, there were 800,000 voters in the 2022 election with Ruto and Raila Odinga sharing the numbers 50/50.

The Coast and North Eastern votes which are approximately 1.2 million votes will be up for grabs since Raila Odinga is not competing and he has been in control of them.

Nairobi which is a metropolitan city is always divided into two when it comes to presidential elections though an alliance between Gachagua and Kalonzo can change the tide in their favour because of Kikuyu and Kamba's dominance.

In a nutshell, the Gachagua and Kalonzo alliance can send Ruto home very easily in 2027.

The Kenyan DAILY POST