Monday, October 28, 2024 - With just days until the November 5 presidential election, more than 41 million Americans have already cast their ballots through early voting, either in person or by mail.
This significant early turnout is expected to play a crucial
role in determining the outcome of the race between former President Donald
Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Historically, Democrats are more likely to vote early or by
mail, while Republicans often favor in-person voting on Election Day. This has
created phenomena such as the "blue shift" or "red mirage"
in swing states, where initial tallies favor Republicans, only to shift toward
Democrats as mail-in ballots are counted.
In 2020, early voting played a key role in states like
Georgia, where over 2.7 million early votes ultimately contributed to Joe
Biden's victory over Trump. This year, Democrats have continued to push for
early voting, while Republicans, traditionally more skeptical of mail-in
voting, have encouraged supporters to vote early, resulting in an increase in
early Republican turnout compared to 2020.
According to data from the University of Florida’s Election
Lab, Democrats currently make up 39.9% of early votes, with Republicans
accounting for 36.3%. As Election Day approaches, both parties will be closely
watching these early trends to gauge their chances in the swing states that
could ultimately decide the election.
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