New poll shows TRUMP and HARRIS at a tie nationally 10 days to election

Friday, October 25, 2024 - With less than two weeks until Election Day in the US, CNBC’s latest national poll finds a margin-of-error presidential contest between Republican contestant Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris both nationally and in key battleground states, with Trump topping her on economic issues and Harris leading on character issues including honesty and the 'fitness to be president.'

In CNBC’s quarterly “All-America Economic Survey,” Trump gets support from 48% of registered voters, while Harris gets 46%  a 2-point spread, well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

That narrow 2-point lead for Trump is unchanged from CNBC’s August poll, and it’s essentially unchanged from the national NBC News poll earlier this month, conducted by the same pair of bipartisan polling firms, which found both candidates tied at 48% each.

Meanwhile, an oversample of registered voters residing in the seven core battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin shows Trump ahead of Harris in those combined states by just 1 point, 48% to 47%.

The pollsters who conduct the CNBC poll say inflation remains a powerful subject shaping this election, with 63% of national voters saying they feel that their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, and with nearly half of voters calling it one of their top issues for the election.

“Even as the data show inflation has theoretically been slowing down, it has become more important in people’s minds over the course of the last three quarters, not less important,” Democratic pollster Jay Campbell of Hart Research Associates told CNBC. (Campbell conducts the poll with Republican Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies.)

On the issues and presidential qualities, the poll shows Harris leading Trump by 13 points nationally on the question of which candidate has the necessary mental and physical fitness to be president, and she’s ahead by 10 points on being honest and trustworthy.

Trump, however, has a 7-point advantage nationally over Harris on which candidate better strengthens the economy in their communities. He also has an 8-point lead on dealing with taxes and businesses and a 9-point edge on the question of helping small businesses.

The poll also finds 42% of registered voters saying they believe they would be better off financially if Trump wins, compared with 24% who believe they would be better off financially if Harris wins. Another 29% of voters say their financial situation won’t change either way.

Asked which candidate would better bring positive change for the country? — 42% of national registered voters pick Harris, while 40% choose Trump. But both of those numbers are short of what will be needed to win the presidency.

Another 5% of voters said they thought both Harris and Trump would bring positive change. And another 9% of voters delivered the pessimistic verdict that neither Harris nor Trump would bring positive change as the next president.

Also, the CNBC poll shows Trump slightly more popular than Harris nationally, with Trump’s rating at 42% positive, 48% negative (-6 net rating), while Harris' stood at 39% positive, 49% negative (-10).